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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

FBM KLCI - higher in line with regional market


Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended higher yesterday in tandem with the positive sentiment in Asian stock markets, as opinion polls in Greece showed the pro-bailout conservative party held the lead in next month’s national elections, and was largely viewed as critical to keeping Greece in the Eurozone. The FBM KLCI closed 3.82 points or 0.25% higher at 1,554.94 after opening 5.7 points lower at 1,545.42. Gainers led losers by 412 to 276 while 322 counters were unchanged. Turnover decreased to 735.85 million shares, worth RM897.64 million, from 875.54 million shares, valued at RM1.18 million, transacted on Friday.

Taking cue from the weak performance of Wall Street last Friday, the FBM KLCI opened with a down gap of 5.7 points lower at 1,545.42 and slipped to the intra-day low of 1,544.63 and stabilized, it then rebounded and moved higher for the rest of the day to hit the intra-day high of 1,556.69 before pulling back to close off high. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bullish engulfing candlestick which showed the bears were initially in controlled but later the bulls took over and pushed the key index to close near the high of the day. With such strong price action yesterday, the FBM KLCI is likely to continue its upward momentum to climb higher today. Immediate overhead resistance is at 1,556 to 1,566 while the immediate downside support zone is at 1,544 to 1,540.

MACD continued to climb higher and its histogram was shorter upward, indicating continued improvement in the key index’s momentum. Nonetheless, as the MACD is still below the zero-line and the signal-line, current up move is still being viewed as a technical rebound in a bear trend. RSI (14) was higher at 44.8 from 42.6 previously, indicating a continued improvement in the short term relative strength. Stochastic oscillator also continued to climb higher to 38.5, indicating a continuation in the short term up cycle and improvement of market strength. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is gradually gaining its upward momentum. However, the overall picture is still bearish bias for the time being.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI has turned up as the key index is now closing above the 5 and 10-day SMA, and it might continues its current momentum to challenge the higher resistance level at 1,566, and a close above the 1,566-point level would see the FBM KLCI moving into the bullish zone. The medium term trend is still down while the long term trend remained up, as the key index continued to close above the long term 120-day SMA for the last three days. As the school holiday starts, the overall market is expected to remain quiet for the coming two weeks, and this is reflected by the very low turnover for the last few sessions.

US market was closed for the Memorial Day holiday yesterday. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,535 to 1,569.

This week's expected range: 1517 – 1573
Today’s expected range: 1535 – 1569

Resistance: 1560, 1565, 1569
Support: 1535, 1540, 1547

Stocks to watch: HIBISCS, MUDAJYA, SUNWAY,  WCT, MBSB

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