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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

FBM KLCI - bearish outlook


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed lower yesterday in a broad-based sell-off amid uncertainty in the short-term market outlook. The local market saw renewed selling pressure after a weekend of political uncertainty in Europe as an unresolved political stalemate in forming a government in Greece weighs on investor sentiment. The FBM KLCI was 9.24 points or 0.6% lower at 1,575.08. Decliners led advancers by 694 to 158 while 223 counters were unchanged. Turnover declined to 977.909 million shares valued at RM1.12 billion from the 1.114 billion shares worth RM1.21 billion last Friday.

The FBM KLCI opened 2.26 points lower at 1,582.06 and rebounded to hit the intra-day high of 1,584.63 within the first five minutes of trading, and the key index slid lower on profit-taking activity and moved range-bound before late afternoon selling pressure which pushed the key index to the intra-day low of 1,574.67. The FBM KLCI finally settled slightly off low. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bearish long black candlestick which indicates the bears were in control for the day, and the downward momentum is likely to send the key index lower today. Immediate downside support is at 1,566-point level, if the FBM KLCI breached this support level, then it is likely to fall further downward to the 1,538-point level, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level measuring from the September 26th 2011 pivot low to the 1,609.33 pivot high.

MACD has hooked southward together with its histogram, indicating an acceleration in the bearish momentum. RSI (14) slid lower to 42.9 from 49.1 previously, indicating an increase in the bearish relative strength. Stochastic slid downward to 59.2 and has crossed below its slow stochastic line, indicating an end to the recent short term up cycle and the beginning of another bearish down cycle. Readings from the indicators showed that the bearish momentum of the FBM KLCI is picking up and the key index is likely to fall further.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI remained down as it continued to stay within the downtrend channel and below the short term moving averages. The key index has also closed below the medium term 50 and 60-day SMA, indicating the medium term outlook is also bearish. However, the long term trend is still up, but is likely to be challenged soon. With the total volume falling below the one billion shares mark, the market is likely to stay quiet amid a bearish outlook.

Overnight, the Dow fell -125.25 points or -0.98% to close at 12,695.35. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,561 to 1,595.
 
This week's expected range: 1556 – 1610
Today’s expected range: 1561 – 1595

Resistance: 1582, 1588, 1595
Support: 1561, 1568, 1571

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