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Thursday, January 19, 2012

FBM KLCI - in consolidation mode


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed on a weak note yesterday with investors turning cautious ahead of the long Chinese New Year holiday next week. However, losses on the local bourse were limited as risk appetite improved amid positive regional performance after strong German economic data and better-than-expected China’s growth figures. Investors’ interest was confined to plantation-related and smaller cap stocks. The FBM KLCI declined 1.98 points or 0.13% to close at 1,517.38 after opening 2.27 points lower at 1,517.09. Market breadth was positive with 368 gainers and 364 losers while 359 counters were unchanged. Trading volume was higher at 1.49 billion shares worth RM1.60 billion, as compared to Tuesday’s 1.44 billion shares worth RM1.79 billion.

The FBM KLCI opened 2.27 points lower at 1,517.09 and was basically moving in a sideways range-bound mode in the negative territory between the high of 1,519.23 and the low of 1,513.38 throughout the day. Chart wise, the FBM KLCI formed a Doji candlestick which indicates uncertainty and indecision of market direction. With the low volatility yesterday, the key index is likely to remain range-bound today with an immediate overhead resistance at 1,521 and a lower support at 1,509.

MACD continued to slide lower, indicating a continued loss in momentum for the short term. Nevertheless, as MACD is still above the zero-line, the current weakness may just be a short term correction. RSI (14) was slightly lower at 57.8, reflecting the mild pulled back in the index yesterday, and the key index is still mildly bullish. Stochastic continued to slide lower to 57.6, indicating a continued loss in market strength and continuation in the short term down cycle. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is currently in a short term consolidation mode.

The immediate short term trend of the FBM KLCI is currently down, as the key index continued to close below the 5 and 10-day SMA. However, the longer term uptrend is still intact. Immediate downside support zone is at 1,509 to 1,501 while the overhead resistance zone is at 1,521 to 1,530. The overall market is likely to remain dominated by the third liners and penny stocks while the index-linked counters are likely to continue with their consolidation. Overnight, the Dow rose +96.88 points or +0.78% to close at 12,578.95. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,501 to 1,526.

This week's expected range: 1502 – 1540
Today’s expected range: 1508 – 1526

Resistance: 1520, 1523, 1526
Support: 1508, 1510, 1514

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