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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

FBM KLCI - turning bullish for the short term


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia continued its upward trend as concerns over the Euro-zone debt crisis began to ease. Persistent buying was noted in three heavyweight counters – Sime Darby, Tenaga and Petronas Chemicals – which pushed the FBM KLCI 22.92 points or 1.59% higher to close at 1,465.35. The barometer index, which opened 9.54 points higher at 1,451.97, moved between 1,451.97 and 1,465.48 throughout the day. Gainers thumped losers by 731 to 155 while 209 counters were unchanged. Total market volume improved to 1.78 billion shares, worth RM1.752 billion, from last Friday’s 1.075 billion units valued at RM1.223 billion.

Taking cue from the strong performance of Wall Street last Friday, the FBM KLCI opened with an up gap of 9.54 points at 1,451.97, the low of the day, and climbed to the morning session high of 1,461.84 before pulling back on profit taking to move sideways. Some late buying of selected heavyweights again pushed the key index to close near the day’s high. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a bullish white Marubozu candlestick which indicates the bulls were fully in control with euphoria built on optimism that the Euro-zone debt crisis is easing. The key index has now broken the resistance posted by the 60-day moving average (MA) at 1,462 and is facing the 360-day MA resistance at 1,467. If the key index is able to break above the 360-day MA decisively, then there is a high likelihood that it will move higher to test the 1,500-point psychological resistance.

MACD continued to climb higher, and is approaching the zero-line, indicating a continued increase in the upward momentum. RSI (14) was also higher at 63.2, indicating the short term relative strength of the FBM KLCI has turned bullish. Stochastic has tapered off and was flat at 98.4, indicating the key index is very strong, but was short term overbought, and a pullback correction is impending. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI is turning bullish for the short term and the upward momentum is building up. However, some pullback is likely to occur as the index is short term overbought.

The short term trend is up and bullish, and the medium term trend has also just turned up as the FBM KLCI has closed above the 50 and 60-day medium term MA. The long term trend, has turned sideways as all the long term moving averages are turning flat now. Nevertheless, the long term outlook is still bearish technically, as the key index remained below the long term moving averages. Immediate overhead resistance zone is at 1,467 to 1,484 while the immediate downside support zone is at 1,450 to 1,436. With the volume growing above 1.7 billion shares, the market is likely to remain active with rotational play.

Overnight, the Dow fell -247.49 points or -2.13% to close at 11,397.00. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,442 to 1,479.

This week's expected range: 1371 – 1504
Today’s expected range: 1442 – 1479

Resistance: 1470, 1475, 1479
Support: 1442, 1447, 1456

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