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Thursday, October 20, 2011

FBM KLCI - higher on technical rebound


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended higher yesterday with the FBM KLCI closing at its intra-day high amid investors' cautious stance on the Euro-zone debt woes. Gains in most heavyweights such as Petronas Chemicals, Genting Malaysia and Tenaga Nasional contributed significantly to the rise, accounting for 8.68 points. The FBM KLCI rose by 10.31 points or 0.72% to close at 1,450.25 after opening 4.97 points higher at 1,444.91. Gainers led losers by 641 to 162, while 210 counters were unchanged. Total market volume rose to 1.69 billion shares valued at RM1.21 billion from 1.36 billion shares valued at RM1.37 billion on Tuesday.

Taking cue from the strong gain on Wall Street overnight, the FBM KLCI opened 4.97 points higher at 1,444.91 and surged to the morning session high of 1,449.90, it then pullback to the intra-day low of 1,444.42 and was moving sideways within the high low range before a last minute pushed up to close at the highest point of the day. Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI formed a small white candlestick in bullish Harami position which indicates consolidation and may possibly continue to move higher, depending on external factors. Immediate overhead resistance zone is anticipated at 1,452 to 1,465, while the immediate downside support zone is at 1,444 to 1,433.

MACD continued to move higher but is tapering off, and its histogram also turned shorter, indicating a reduction in the upward momentum. RSI (14) hooked up gently to 57.4, indicating the relative strength of the key index is still mildly bullish. Stochastic continued to slide lower to 87.8 and is below the slow stochastic line, indicating consolidation. Readings from the indicators showed that the FBM KLCI has moved into short term consolidation.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI remained up while medium term trend is down, and the longer term outlook is still bearish, technically. Immediate 5-day moving average (MA) support is at 1,448, while the 10-day MA support is at 1,427, and the horizontal support is at 1,433. With volume remained above the 1 billion shares mark, the overall market is likely to remain active with rotational play on second and third liners while the index link counters may continue to consolidate. Overnight, the Dow fell -72.43 points or -0.63% to close at 11,504.62. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1,440 to 1,456.

This week's expected range: 1371 – 1504
Today’s expected range: 1440 – 1456

Resistance: 1452, 1454, 1456
Support: 1440, 1442, 1446

Stocks to watch: HIBISCS, HIBISCS-WA, JCY

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