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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

FBM KLCI - reversal signal


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended mixed yesterday with the benchmark FBM KLCI slipped into the red, led by DiGi and British American Tobacco (BAT). The FBM KLCI fell 4.05 points or 0.28% to 1462.27 after opening 3.19 points higher at 1469.51. It moved between 1474.90 and 1462.27 throughout the trading session. Gainers led losers by 501 to 295 while 258 counters were unchanged. Turnover was higher with 1.369 billion shares worth RM1.71 billion transacted compared with 973 million shares worth RM1.47 billion last Friday.

The FBM KLCI opened with an up gap of 3.19 points higher at 1469.51 and surged to the intra-day high of 1474.90. It was hovering around 1472 to 1474 for a major part of the day before selling pressure that emerged in the late afternoon pushed it to close at the low of the day. The price action of the key index led to the formation of a black inverted hammer like candlestick with its body engulfing the previous day’s candle, which is a bearish reversal signal. The key index is now closing below the 5 and 10-day short term moving averages, together with the bearish candlestick signal, the key index is likely to continue its down move today. Immediate support for the key index is at 1456 and 1450.

MACD continued to slide lower extending its down move, indicating the downward momentum is picking up. RSI (14) at 62.2 has hooked downward and is at the mildly bullish zone with a downward bias. Stochastic at 61 has also turned downward crossing below its slow Stochastic. Signals from the indicators are indicating a high probability of continued correction and consolidation of the FBM KLCI.

The short term trend of the FBM KLCI is now sideways or range-bound with a downward bias while the medium to longer term trend remained up. Immediate support zone for the key index is at 1445 to 1456 with 1450 being an important psychological support, while immediate overhead resistance zone is at 1475 to 1480.

The FBM KLCI is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation today, while second and third liners will still be in rotational play. Overnight, the Dow fell -78.41 points or -0.72% lower to close at 10,751.27. Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1445 to 1480.

This week's expected range: 1445 – 1491
Today’s expected range: 1445 – 1480

Resistance: 1471, 1475, 1480
Support: 1445, 1453, 1458

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