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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

FBM KLCI - consolidation with downward bias


Stocks on Bursa Malaysia ended mixed yesterday on the lack of fresh market moving leads, and most major regional markets rebounded after recent falls. The FBM KLCI ended 4.10 points or 0.31% lower at 1330.17 after opening 1.0 point lower at 1,332.27, dragged down by losses mainly in MAYBANK, PLUS and PPB. Market breadth was negative for most part of the day, however, at close gainers led losers by 336 to 295 while 287 counters were unchanged. Turnover was slightly higher at 690 million shares worth RM1.144 billion.

Chart wise, the FBM KLCI formed an atypical black Harami candlestick. It opened with a one point down gap and move to the intra-day low of 1327.05, however, it did not penetrate yesterday’s low making it enclosed within yesterday’s range, hence, forming a Harami candlestick. This indicates there were some continued selling, however, the selling was not strong enough to make a new low, signifying buying support around 1326 level.

MACD continued to slide lower, indicating the downward momentum continued to gain strength. RSI(14) at 45.99 continued to move lower into the bearish zone. Stochastic at 55.26 continued to slide lower, indicating the down cycle is gaining strength. Confluence of the indicators’ signals point to further downside or continued consolidation of the benchmark FBM KLCI.

The short term trend is down, medium term trend is sideways while the longer term trend remained up. The key index is currently below its short term 5, 10 and 30-day moving averages (MA), the 10-day MA already start to cross below the 30-day MA, hence, exerting downward pressure on the key index.

The key index is now resting right on the support zone of 1324 to 1330. If the key index closes below the current support at 1330, it may continue to test lower support zone. Immediate lower support for the key index is found at 1324, 1321 and 1315.

Overnight, DJIA closed 114.88 points or 1.08% lower at 10,510.95.

Today, the FBM KLCI is likely to trade within a range of 1321 to 1340.

This week's expected range: 1290 – 1361
Today’s expected range: 1321 – 1340

Resistance: 1333, 1336, 1340
Support: 1321, 1324, 1327

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