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Thursday, July 24, 2008

The Silver Lining

During the past few months it’s been difficult to look on the bright side. Whether it has been rising oil prices, housing woes or the banking crisis, it’s easy to fall prey to a pessimistic attitude. If you aren’t careful, you may start to think it’s impossible to overcome the many obstacles in your way. But there is always a bright side. For the past two days, for example, oil prices are down and things don’t look so bleak. These events illustrate that setbacks are often temporary and with enough creativity they can be overcome. It’s always better to look on the bright side than fall prey to pessimism.

Winning traders trade using a scientific approach. They don’t become overly emotionally and pessimistic when they hear bad news. Rather, they just press on. They develop hypotheses, devise sound trading plans, and test out their theories by executing a trade and seeing what happens. A very systematic, objective approach is taken. Sometimes a hypothesis is supported, and a method is confirmed to produce a profit under specific market conditions, but at other times, a theory is not supported. Revisions are then required. It's vital to determine what went wrong, and what went right, and make any necessary changes.

When things aren't going right, it is useful to look on the bright side: Remember that things could be worse. When you lose $10,000 on a sure thing, for example, you might as well think, "At least I didn't lose $20,000." It works to think positively. A study by Dr. Chris Davis, a professor of psychology at Carleton University, and his colleagues illustrates the usefulness of looking on the bright side. Participants were asked to imagine they had just experienced a major setback. Some of the participants were instructed to look on the bright side in that they were asked to consider the fact that matters could have been a lot worse. Other participants were asked to consider how the situation could have been much better. The mood of the participants was measured and compared. Research findings clearly favored looking on the bright side of things. People who focused on how matters could have turned out much worse felt happier after a major setback than people who focused on how events could have been more favorable. So if you want to be happy after you encounter a setback, look on the bright side.

The Problem

When facing setback after setback, it’s easy to fall prey to a pessimistic outlook. When pessimism sets in it is difficult to trade with the proper mental edge. Opportunities are blurred by a negative outlook.

Mental Edge Strategies

How you look at a setback strongly influences how you recover from it. If you view a setback as a dreaded event, and imbue it with strong personal significance, you'll feel so emotionally overwhelmed that you will be tempted to engage in avoidance and denial. Rather than taking decisive action, you will waste precious psychological resources denying the reality of the situation. It's better to take setbacks in stride, find solutions, and move forward. Don't mull over what went wrong. Instead, figure out what you can do next to improve your strategies and methods and take home huge profits.

There is always a bright side. You just have to find it. As long as you have trading capital to trade, you can look for opportunities to profit. Similarly, even if you don’t have sufficient trading capital right now, you can build up your capital, continue to observe the markets and develop your understanding of the market action. Rather than feel stuck and ready to give up completely, there is always a bright side.

Looking at the bright side keeps your spirits up, and you need to keep your spirits up in order to feel buoyant enough to search for creative solutions to problems. When carefully analyzing how a trading plan went awry, for example, it's easy to start beating yourself up for not having a trading plan that was foolproof. But if you mull over the possibilities too much and start thinking, "Why did things turn out so wrong?" then you will feel disappointed. It's vital that you stay focused on taking active steps to solve problems, and that’s why keeping your spirits up by looking for the bright side is so important. Rather than react to setbacks with emotion, it’s vital to think like a scientist. Pretend you are merely solving a mundane problem, like finding the solution to a basic math problem. Figure out what you can do next. Don't question your abilities. Self-doubt is a complete waste of time and energy. Look on the bright side for a moment, and optimistically search for ways to pick yourself up off the ground. By looking on the bright side rather than falling prey to a pessimistic outlook, you will trade with the proper mental edge.


By Michael S. Shopshire, PhD. Mental Edge

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